Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker maintains a lead among likely Iowa caucus attendees, middle age voters, and most music listeners. All of that is according to a new poll conducted by KBUR and Monmouth College Midwest Matters.
Walker polled at 18% of poll respondents, six points ahead of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 12%. Several candidates were at or near the 10% level, including Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee at 10%, Florida Senator Marco Rubio (9%), and Texas Senator Ted Cruz (8%). Billionaire businessman Donald Trump was next at 7%.
Trailing the pack are retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (5%), former Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (4%), businesswoman Carly Fiorina (3%), Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (2%), and Ohio Governor John Kasich (1%). Just 3% of the respondents are undecided.
The KBUR poll was unique in that it also polled respondents on musical preferences.
Robin Johnson, host of “Talking Politics” on KBUR and a part time lecturer at Monmouth College, says that Walker enjoys widespread support among age groups, regions of Iowa and musical preferences.
“I was surprised by Donald Trump’s support in some key subgroups” Johnson said, “By gender, Trump is running second among men behind Walker. In age categories, he’s leading among voters 35-44…I still think he faces long odds in getting the nomination…but he could be very important in driving the conversation as this campaign takes shape.”
Some other significant findings from the crosstabs:
• Gender: Large gender disparities existed for three candidates in particular. Bush received 16% of the female vote (First among women), but only 6% of the male vote (Tied for 6th among men along with Huckabee and Christie). Trump received 13% of the male vote (Second among men), but only 2% of the female vote (13th among women, behind “Undecided”). While Walker was popular among both men and women, he still did far better among men (21%, first among men) than women (15%, second among women). Fiorina, the only woman in the race, polls equally among men and women (3%).
• Age: Bush leads among the youngest and oldest age categories in the poll (18-24 and 65+). Paul leads among voters 25-34, Trump among voters 35-44 and Walker among voters 45-64.
• Region: In the nine regions of the state, Walker leads in five of them, Huckabee in three and Bush in one. Walker is first or second in all of the nine regions. In the central region which includes the vote-rich Des Moines area, Walker leads with 13% of the vote, followed by Bush at 11% and Paul, Rubio and Cruz at 10%. Walker did best in the region abutting his state, with 25% in northeastern Iowa. In southeastern Iowa, most of which comprises the KBUR listening area, Huckabee leads with 16% followed by Paul, Rubio and Walker at 15%.
• Music: Walker leads in all of the musical categories except rap and jazz. He leads in the two most popular musical categories – country and classical – and runs particularly well among R&B and pop fans. Christie, Rubio and Fiorina run well among jazz listeners. Rap listeners tended to prefer Paul and Bush equally (33%), but with only 6 respondents preferring the genre, more study is required before crowning the true “Rap King” of the Republican Party.
Results from the poll among Democratic caucus goers will be released soon. This poll is the first in a series of three to be conducted between now and the February 1 caucus date. Each will feature presidential preference, gender, age and region, along with a pop culture question.
The poll of 1,000 automated responses among likely Republican caucus goers was conducted by We Ask America on June 27-29 and has a margin of error rate of +- 3.1%.