Iowa Democrats Prefer Hillary, But Sanders Gaining in KBUR/Monmouth College Poll

Former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton holds a more than 3 to 1 advantage over her closest competitor, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in a KBUR-AM, Burlington, IA, and Monmouth College (IL) Midwest Matters poll of 1,000 likely caucus goers.

Clinton has the support of 63% of Democrats in Iowa compared with 20% for Sanders. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley is at 5%, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb is at 3% and former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chaffee is at 1%. Another 8% of respondents are undecided.

“The results of the poll fit in pretty well with what the rest of the polls are showing,” said Robin Johnson, host of “Talking Politics” on KBUR and part-time lecturer at Monmouth College, “In that Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead in Iowa. Bernie Sanders is the main competition, and he’s risen to 20% of the vote so far. I think it’s interesting that he does better among men than he does women at this point and so, he’s got a ways to go but he’s had a pretty good start so far to his campaign.”

There is a wide gender gap in the support of Clinton and Sanders, with Clinton ahead of Sanders among women by 69% to 14% while her lead among men is at 52% to 31%.

Clinton also leads among all age groups except the youngest voters (18-24) where Sanders leads 52% to 42%. Clinton enjoys an especially large lead among Democrats 45-54 (84% to 8%). Sanders generally performed better among voters under 45 while Clinton performs better among Iowa Democrats older than 45.
Clinton leads in all regions of the state and does best in southwest and south central Iowa. Sanders comes closest in northwest Iowa, the only region where Clinton is under 50% (44% to 25%). In the vote rich central and east central regions, Sanders does slightly better than his statewide performance but Clinton still enjoys a wide lead. O’Malley broke double figures in west central Iowa (12%).

In a different twist, poll respondents were asked their favorite type of music. Among Iowa Democrats, classical music rates most popular at 25% followed closely by country at 24%. Next are rock (13%) and pop (11%). Clinton leads in all music categories and beats Sanders in the two most popular genres, classical (53% to 23%) and country (66% to 20%). Perhaps reflecting her Baby Boomer background, she does best among rock fans (70% to 20%) while Sanders does best among R&B fans (30%) and jazz fans (26%). While Chaffee received only 1% of the vote overall, he was favored by two of the six rap music fans, with the rest favoring Clinton.

“He should put together some kind of campaign ditty that combines country and classical, and good luck with that,” said Johnson, “Maybe a symphony combining violins and banjos. I’m sure it can be done. But because those two genres are most popular with Iowa Democrats, that’s one way to make some popular inroads.

Iowa Democrats and Iowa Republicans actually agree on musical tastes. Iowa Republicans also prefered Country and Classical, but unlike the Democrats, picked Country over Classical more.
This poll is the first in a series of three to be conducted between now and the February 1 caucus date. Each will feature presidential preference, gender, age and region, along with a pop culture question. The results for the Republican candidates were released earlier.
The poll of 1,000 automated responses among likely Democratic caucus goers was conducted by We Ask America on June 27-29 and has a margin of error rate of +- 3.1%.